A Gaussian Model for the Time Development of the Sars-Cov-2 Corona Pandemic Disease. Predictions for Germany Made on 30 March 2020

Abstract

For Germany, it is predicted that the first wave of the corona pandemic disease reaches its maximum of new infections on 11 April 2020 − 3.4 + 5.4 days with 90% confidence. With a delay of about 7 days the maximum demand on breathing machines in hospitals occurs on 18 April 2020 − 3.4 + 5.4 days. The first pandemic wave ends in Germany end of May 2020. The predictions are based on the assumption of a Gaussian time evolution well justified by the central limit theorem of statistics. The width and the maximum time and thus the duration of this Gaussian distribution are determined from a statistical χ 2 -fit to the observed doubling times before 28 March 2020.

Keywords

• statistical methods in physics
• Gaussian model
• virus time evolution
• health science