Revisiting permafrost carbon feedback and economic impacts

Abstract

Quantifying permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is a critical step in conveying the significance of permafrost carbon emissions to decision-makers and stakeholders and achieving sustainable development goals. Simply assuming a rapid reduction in permafrost area may be an overaggressive approach. This study revisited PCF by incorporating relatively clear permafrost physics into the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy. The results show that the total carbon released from permafrost regions in 2100 is 30.5 GtC, which is accompanied by an additional atmospheric warming of 0.038 °C, much lower than previous studies. This study provides a potential perspective to scrutinize the climate feedback and related economic impacts due to permafrost thawing. We may need to pay more attention to carbon processes during nongrowing seasons and sudden changes in permafrost.

Keywords

• permafrost
• active layer
• carbon
• feedback
• climate change