Statistički modeli prognoziranja potražnje rezervnih delova / Statistical models of spare part requirement prediction

Abstract

Potražnja i obezbeđenje rezervnih delova predstavlja jedan od ključnih faktora uspešnosti sistema održavanja, a zavisi od mogućnosti prognoziranja potražnje. Postoji vise grupa modela prognoziranja potražnje, a jednu čini grupa statističnih modela. U ovom radu prikazana su dva statistička modela jedan kada ne postoje podaci o potražnji rezervnih delova u prošlosti i jedan kada ti podaci postoje. Jedan model je eksperimentalno primenjen i na osnovu dobijenih efekata može se zaključiti da daje veoma dobre rezultate. / Spare part supply is one of the key parts of effective system maintenance A successful spare part providing depends on the possibility to predict requirements. There are several kinds of production models and the statistical one is one of them. In this article we present two statistical models. One model is applicable if there is no data about spare part requirements in the past. Another model is used if such data exists. The first model was experimentally verified and, considering the experimental results, we can conclude that the proposed model gives very good results.

Keywords

• rezervni deo
• potražnja
• model
• prognoza
• spare part
• requirement
• prediction