Predicting the number of defects in a new software version.

Abstract

Predicting the number of defects in software at the method level is important. However, little or no research has focused on method-level defect prediction. Therefore, considerable efforts are still required to demonstrate how method-level defect prediction can be achieved for a new software version. In the current study, we present an analysis of the relevant information obtained from the current version of a software product to construct regression models to predict the estimated number of defects in a new version using the variables of defect density, defect velocity and defect introduction time, which show considerable correlation with the number of method-level defects. These variables also show a mathematical relationship between defect density and defect acceleration at the method level, further indicating that the increase in the number of defects and the defect density are functions of the defect acceleration. We report an experiment conducted on the Finding Faults Using Ensemble Learners (ELFF) open-source Java projects, which contain 289,132 methods. The results show correlation coefficients of 60% for the defect density, -4% for the defect introduction time, and 93% for the defect velocity. These findings indicate that the average defect velocity shows a firm and considerable correlation with the number of defects at the method level. The proposed approach also motivates an investigation and comparison of the average performances of classifiers before and after method-level data preprocessing and of the level of entropy in the datasets.