Dynamics of the small farmers' behaviour - scenario simulations

Abstract

The paper deals with the dynamic simulation of the possible development scenarios of small farmers. The model is based on the official data sources but also on the qualitative research of small farmers. The modelling structure reflects the specifics of the examined field and personal and social specifics of small farmers. For the purposes of the analysis, the business model describes the value creation in the small and individual farms, thereafter the model is extended into the dynamic simulation model and the selected scenarios of development are simulated. The analysis shows the impact of the current setup in the field. Despite the fact that the paper contains the optimistic scenarios, a simple change of parameters leads to an unsustainable situation. The pessimistic scenarios grow from the realistic conditions when the parameters reflect the recent period settings. This clearly depicts the influence of the weak market position of the farmers and advocates the diversification tendencies.

Keywords

• farmer
• system dynamics
• computer simulation
• business models
• scenarios