Risk and benefit analysis of multifunctional reservoir staged operating

Abstract

An optimal flood-limiting water level (FLWL) is needed to solve the contradiction between flood control safety measures and utilizable benefits. Therefore, this paper took the Chengbi River reservoir as an example, applied the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and water consumption rate per unit of electrical energy methods to calculate the flood control risks and benefits associated with raising the FLWL in stages, and used the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to select the optimal FLWL for each stage of the flood season, which provided a scientific basis for the effective use of rainfall and flood data in the reservoir. The major outcomes of the study are as follows. (1) The reservoir flood season can be divided into a preflood season (April to May), a main flood season (June to August), and a later flood season (September to October). (2) The flood risks and power generation benefits of the reservoir are calculated after raising the FLWL, the optimal FLWL for the main flood season is 185.5 m, and the optimal FLWL for the later flood season is 187.50 m, while the FLWL in the preflood season should be kept at 185.0 m. The above results can provide scientific support for flood control safety planning and the optimal operation of reservoirs. HIGHLIGHTS Flood risks are calculated for each staged FLWL scheme for the Chengbi River reservoir.; Using power generation benefits as an indicator, the utilizable benefits are calculated for each staged FLWL scheme.; A comprehensive evaluation of the flood risks and power generation benefits of each scheme is carried out to obtain the optimal FLWL scheme for each stage.;

Keywords

• flood risk in reservoirs
• fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
• monte carlo stochastic simulation
• multipurpose reservoir
• staged operation