Simulation of transport logistics of military cargo considering the losses occurring in the war zone due to delays in delivery

Abstract

The multi-criteria task related to the simulation of transport logistics for the delivery of military cargo to the war zone in the conditions of delays and risks is stated and solved. The relevance of the study is related to the analysis of possible losses in the war zone (loss of armed forces, damage and destruction of military equipment, change in hostilities from offensive to defensive, etc.) due to the delayed supply of weapons and military equipment. The study simulates the logistics of transportation in the diverse transport networks to ensure timely delivery of military cargo in the conditions of possible delays and risks that affect the amount of damage in the war zone. Given the complex dynamics of military cargo delivery related to heterogeneity and transshipment in the transport network, the original agent simulation model has been created. This model makes it possible to study the supply process and allows to assess delays, risks and losses. A new algorithm to minimize the delivery time of military cargo, based on the distribution of request clones in a graph representing a heterogeneous transport network is presented. An algorithm to minimize supply risks in wartime that considers long logistics chains for transporting military cargo to the war zone is presented. We study the losses caused by the untimely arrival of various types of military equipment and weapons in the war zone, based on full factorial experiments and the assessments of military experts in the field of military logistics are conducted. Given the contradictions of the criteria of delays, risks and losses, the multi-criteria problem of compromise search optimization based on integer (Boolean) programming is stated and solved. The efficiency of the proposed approach is demonstrated by simulating military cargo supply to the war zone. Alternative supply routes, risks and losses due to delays in supply are analyzed. The choice of the compromise alternative of military cargo delivery route to the war zone is substantiated. The scientific novelty of the study is related to the development of methods and models based on agent simulation, experimental theory and integer optimization, that makes it possible to estimate the delays and losses in the supply of military cargo to the war zone in long logistics chains of diverse transport network. The results of the study can be used to build the optimal routes to supply military cargo in wartime.

Keywords

• логістика постачання військових вантажів
• різнорідна транспортна мережа
• запізнення та ризики у постачанні
• збитки у зоні бойових дій
• агентне імітаційне моделювання