Analysis of Runoff-Sediment Cointegration and Uncertainty Relations at Different Temporal Scales in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River, China

Abstract

To understand the intricate runoff-sediment relationship in the middle Yellow River basin (MYRB), the Toudaoguai, Longmen, Tongguan and Huayuankou sites in the MYRB were selected to analyze the deterministic equilibrium and uncertainty relations of runoff-sediment based on 55-year hydrological data at multi-time scales. The Johansen test and wavelet neural network were used to verify the cointegration relationship among hydrological series. Runoff-sediment uncertain statistical relations and dynamics in the MYRB were also analyzed based on rating curves and hysteresis loops. The results showed that the logarithmic sequences of sediment load (SL), runoff and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) conformed to a linear cointegration relationship at the Toudaoguai station or in spring, winter or under small flow at other stations, but a nonlinear cointegration relationship was observed in other cases at other stations. Regarding runoff-sediment uncertain relationships, the rating curves, and hysteresis loops differed in stations (Toudaoguai and the other stations), as well as discharge (threshold: 1000 m3/s), season (ice-flood and rainy season) and saturation of flow at flood and monthly scales. At the annual scale, phased and unsynchronized characteristics of runoff and sediment load were evident with a decreasing trend. This study on the runoff-sediment relationship can rationally provide a theoretical basis for the management and development of the Yellow River and other similar rivers with sufficient sediment, especially for areas with serious soil erosion.

Keywords

• the middle Yellow River
• cointegration relationship
• uncertainty relationship
• spatio-temporal scale
• hysteresis loops
• rating curves