Climate Change and the Spatiotemporal Variation in Survival of a Long-Distance Migrant (White Stork, <i>Ciconia ciconia</i>) across Western Europe

Abstract

The spatial variation in the strength of climate change may lead to different impacts on migratory birds using different breeding areas across a region. We used a long-term data series of White Stork ring recoveries to study the temporal and spatial variation of annual survival rates of White Stork across western Europe between 1960 and 2009 in relation to climatic and environmental conditions at their breeding and wintering grounds. White Stork survival was estimated from the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model using a cohort-based analysis. Our results support that climate change has caused a gradual decline in the survival performance of western European White Storks during the study period. Both the shape and the strength of the relationship between climate warming and survival differ among different life-stages of the individual development, with juvenile White Storks more strongly affected. The decline in survival is particularly marked for those storks breeding in southern Europe. The large-scale effect of climatic conditions identified in this widespread long-distance migrant species represents a highly likely scenario for other migratory birds in Europe.

Keywords

• climate change
• mark-recapture
• NDVI
• temperature anomaly
• Cormack–Jolly–Seber