CHA2DS2-VASc score as a predictor of long-term cardiac outcomes in elderly patients with or without atrial fibrillation

Abstract

Yunli Xing, Ying Sun, Hongwei Li, Mei Tang, Wei Huang, Kan Zhang, Dai Zhang, Deqiang Zhang, Qing Ma Department of Geriatrics and Gerontology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China Background: The CHA2DS2-VASc score is often used for stroke risk stratification in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. However, its usefulness in patients ≥75 years of age with or without AF is unclear.Objective: We aimed to investigate whether the CHA2DS2-VASc score can predict ischemic stroke (IS), transient ischemic attack, thromboembolism (TE), and mortality in elderly patients with and without AF.Materials and methods: During 2013–2014, 1,071 patients (36.3% with concomitant AF) at least 75 years old were enrolled, and the follow-up ended on July 15, 2017. Variables included sociodemographic characteristics, complications, drugs taken, laboratory results, and echocardiographic parameters. The primary end points were IS, transient ischemic attack, and TE, expressed as IS/TE. All-cause mortality was a secondary end point. Survival curves and mortality risks were assessed via Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and compared by log-rank tests.Results: The average follow-up duration was 2.57±1.37 years. Overall, 167 patients (5.6%) died and 77 (7.2%) developed IS/TE. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with IS/TE in patients 75 years or older with and without AF, and patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥5 had a higher risk of stroke. However, the CHA2DS2-VASc score was not related to all-cause mortality.Conclusion: The CHA2DS2-VASc score can predict IS/TE, but not mortality, in elderly patients (≥75 years) with or without AF. Keywords: CHA2DS2-VASc score, atrial fibrillation, elderly, stroke, survival