ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENJUALAN SINGKONG DENGAN APLIKASI POM-QM (STUDI PADA KELOMPOK PETANI MUDA DI KOTA TARAKAN)

Abstract

Indonesia is an agricultural country whose economy is largely dependent on the agricultural sector. Cassava or cassava, which has the Latin name Manihot esculenta crantz, is a tuber plant that contains lots of carbohydrates. Tarakan Young Farmers are one of the farmer groups who chose cassava to cultivate since the beginning of land clearing. Price fluctuations that often occur in cassava are caused by excessive harvesting and natural disasters such as floods due to rainy weather, including the appearance of fungus on cassava trees which causes a decline in the quality of cassava so that demand decreases. In this case, farmers can take advantage of technological developments, one of which is sales forecasting using analytical tools that can help and make it easier for cassava farmers to predict optimal cassava production so that farmers can reduce the risk of losses due to this. Excessive production compared to market demand. In this research, sales forecasting for the Tarakan Young Farmers group used three forecasting methods, namely the Single Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing methods. The results of sales forecasting for the next period using the best method, namely Single Exponential Smoothing with a = 0.1, is 4.913 Kg.

Keywords

• forecasting
• moving average
• exponential smoothing
• weighted