Exploring the influence of hydrology on the threshold phosphorus-loading rate in shallow lakes

Abstract

The Alternative Stable States Model describes the two contrasting conditions of shallow lakes that occur in response to external phosphorus (P) loading: 1) a clear-water, macrophyte-dominated state during times of lesser external P loading, and 2) a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state during periods of greater P loading. Determination of the P loading rate that distinguishes the two stable states, i.e. the threshold phosphorus loading rate (TPL), is fundamental to shallow-lake science and management. We used data from nine shallow subtropical lakes in Florida (USA) to generate a parsimonious model that predicts the TPL from the hydraulic detention time (HDT). The model reveals that the TPL is more sensitive to changes in HDT in lakes with short (10 years) HDTs. We compared our results with published data from 54 geographically distributed shallow aquatic systems and found that the Florida-based HDT-TPL model has general applicability. Given many lakes worldwide are shallow, our findings have the potential to improve understanding and management of numerous aquatic ecosystems around the globe.