Forest fire motives in Italy: preliminary results of a pilot survey in the most fire-affected Provinces

Abstract

The percentage of forest fires of unknown origin, accounting in Italy for about 40% of the total number, hampers any attempt of efficacious prevention based on modification of causes. This work deals with the implementation of a simple though promising technique of motivation survey aimed at reducing such percentage, the Delphi method, a grouping technique using estimates from a panel of experts and feedback summaries from preceding responses for additional estimates. Sitting between knowledge and speculation, the informed deliberations of the panel of experts may be considered an informed judgment. Delphi surveys were carried out by CFS (National Forestry Service) in 23 of the most affected provinces, involving several panel of experts for a total of 1000 people, all of them on duty in the Forestry Stations of the Service. Results highlighted a remarkable prevalence of involuntary versus voluntary fires (54% and 42%, respectively). The panels of experts provided fairly homogeneous and convergent answers based on few motives, the majority of fire ignitions were attributed to: (i) creation or renewal of pastures; (2) residues elimination, including stubble burning; (iii) increasing the yield of wild plant foods; (iv) poaching probably related to limitation of hunting use and access control. The most recurrent motivations represent traditional uses of fire by rural societies. Other motivations presented less significant and negligible values. Cluster analysis clearly put in evidence that similar motivations characterize small and homogeneous groups of provinces, supporting the evidence that fire motivations are site and culture specific phenomena.

Keywords

• Feedback
• Fire motivation
• Involuntary fire
• Delphi method
• Panel of experts
• Scientific prediction
• Voluntary fires