Factors of Regional Processes Destabilization in the Southern Russia
Abstract
Introduction. The article examines traditional and recent factors that affect the situation in the geopolitically significant southern Russian region. The reasons for the actualization of socio-political and ethno-confessional conflicts are considered as factors of possible regional destabilization. Methods and materials. Conflictological diagnostics of the regional tension dynamics, as well as the nature and features of situational and long-term risks to regional security and socio-political stability in the South of Russia are based on factor analysis of Rostov region, Krasnodar Krai, and the Republic of Adygea materials. Analysis. By analyzing the statistics, the authors has revealed the presence of such negative processes in these regions as a decrease in the standard of living, a sharp increase in the unemployment rate, an increase in corruption and crime rates, population decrease, which is provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic – the newest factor of regional tension. Results. It is concluded that socio-economic problems against the background of a pandemic crisis may adversely affect the nature of interethnic and interfaith relations. Competition in the labor market, deterioration of the criminal situation, and uncontrolled migration can be considered as factors of conflict. According to the results of the study, it was found that the destabilization factors of the Rostov region regional situation have an endogenous character: demographic (population decrease), economic (deterioration in the socio-economic situation of the population), growth of protest activity and destructive content in the media. For Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Adygea, exogenous factors of regional tension remain relevant: there is a high level of external migration for the region. Authors’ contribution.The contribution of M.V. Tarasova in writing the article is to form the research logic, develop methodology and tools, and analyze statistical information in Rostov region. The analysis of the regional situation in Krasnodar Krai and Rostov region was carried out by I.V. Yurchenko, and M.V. Dontsova.
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