Ziyuan Kexue (Mar 2023)
The carbon emission effects of cross-regional cooperation under multiple objective constraints in China
Abstract
[Objective] Accelerating the construction of low-carbon energy system and efficient industrial system is the key to converting driving force of China’s economic growth and constructing green and low-carbon circular economic development system. [Methods] This paper decomposes the carbon emission effect through the Kaya identity, meanwhile, it takes several policy objectives in the different provinces’ development plans as constraints and uses the multi-objective planning model to analyze the characteristics of the local energy structure, industrial structure, carbon dioxide emissions, etc. [Results] The results show that under the current energy structure and industrial structure, it is difficult to keep a balance between economic growth and energy-conservation and emission-reduction，through interregional energy allocation and industrial transfer, the emission reduction potential is greater under the synergistic optimization strategy, which is 780.829×106 tons; Energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure and economic development level will significantly affect the carbon dioxide emissions of different provinces and energy intensity is the dominant factor affecting carbon emissions at this stage. The industrial transference has two sides, while adjusting the industrial structure in different regions, industrial transfer may lead to the increase of carbon dioxide emission in the regions where industrial transfer in, attention should be paid to the level raise of carbon dioxide emissions that lead by industry transfer; With sufficient energy allocation and industrial transfer, the GDP of 30 provinces increases significantly, with growth rates of 7.98% on average. Meanwhile, the economic structure of these provinces is further optimized, and the industrial development highlights the regional characteristics, breaking the dilemma of industrial isomorphism between regions to a certain extent. [Conclusion] By considering the carbon emission effect of regional differentiated development strategy under the constraints of multiple objectives. It is confirmed that the synergistic optimization strategy under the constraint of multiple objectives produces less carbon dioxide emissions, while adopting collaborative optimization strategies, carbon dioxide emissions from energy allocation and industrial transfer should be reduced. This paper provides some enlightenment for the construction of green and low-carbon circular economic development system.
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