Global Sustainability (Jan 2021)
Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan
- Maria A. Martin,
- Olga Alcaraz Sendra,
- Ana Bastos,
- Nico Bauer,
- Christoph Bertram,
- Thorsten Blenckner,
- Kathryn Bowen,
- Paulo M. Brando,
- Tanya Brodie Rudolph,
- Milena Büchs,
- Mercedes Bustamante,
- Deliang Chen,
- Helen Cleugh,
- Purnamita Dasgupta,
- Fatima Denton,
- Jonathan F. Donges,
- Felix Kwabena Donkor,
- Hongbo Duan,
- Carlos M. Duarte,
- Kristie L. Ebi,
- Clea M. Edwards,
- Anja Engel,
- Eleanor Fisher,
- Sabine Fuss,
- Juliana Gaertner,
- Andrew Gettelman,
- Cécile A.J. Girardin,
- Nicholas R. Golledge,
- Jessica F. Green,
- Michael R. Grose,
- Masahiro Hashizume,
- Sophie Hebden,
- Helmke Hepach,
- Marina Hirota,
- Huang-Hsiung Hsu,
- Satoshi Kojima,
- Sharachchandra Lele,
- Sylvia Lorek,
- Heike K. Lotze,
- H. Damon Matthews,
- Darren McCauley,
- Desta Mebratu,
- Nadine Mengis,
- Rachael H. Nolan,
- Erik Pihl,
- Stefan Rahmstorf,
- Aaron Redman,
- Colleen E. Reid,
- Johan Rockström,
- Joeri Rogelj,
- Marielle Saunois,
- Lizzie Sayer,
- Peter Schlosser,
- Giles B. Sioen,
- Joachim H. Spangenberg,
- Detlef Stammer,
- Thomas N.S. Sterner,
- Nicola Stevens,
- Kirsten Thonicke,
- Hanqin Tian,
- Ricarda Winkelmann,
- James Woodcock
Affiliations
- Maria A. Martin
- ORCiD
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Olga Alcaraz Sendra
- Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
- Ana Bastos
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
- Nico Bauer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Christoph Bertram
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Kathryn Bowen
- Melbourne Climate Futures, Melbourne Law School, Parkville, Victoria, Australia Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Paulo M. Brando
- University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
- Tanya Brodie Rudolph
- South Africa Centre for Sustainability Transitions (CST), University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- Milena Büchs
- University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, UK
- Mercedes Bustamante
- University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil
- Deliang Chen
- ORCiD
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Helen Cleugh
- WCRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC), Canberra, Australia
- Purnamita Dasgupta
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur, Nepal
- Fatima Denton
- United Nations University, Institute for Natural Resources in Africa, Accra, Ghana
- Jonathan F. Donges
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Felix Kwabena Donkor
- Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography, University of Education-Winneba, Winneba, Ghana
- Hongbo Duan
- School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Carlos M. Duarte
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), and Computational Biosciences Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Kristie L. Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment (CHanGE), University of Washington, Washington, USA
- Clea M. Edwards
- ORCiD
- Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- Anja Engel
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- Eleanor Fisher
- Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala, Sweden
- Sabine Fuss
- ORCiD
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Juliana Gaertner
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Andrew Gettelman
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
- Cécile A.J. Girardin
- University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Nicholas R. Golledge
- Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
- Jessica F. Green
- University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Michael R. Grose
- CSIRO, Canberra, Australia
- Masahiro Hashizume
- University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
- Sophie Hebden
- Future Earth Global Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- Helmke Hepach
- Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany
- Marina Hirota
- Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
- Huang-Hsiung Hsu
- Anthropogenic Climate Change Center, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Satoshi Kojima
- Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Miura-gun, Hayama, Japan
- Sharachchandra Lele
- Centre for Environment & Development, ATREE, Bengaluru, India
- Sylvia Lorek
- Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Cologne, Germany ZOE Institute for Future-Fit economies, Cologne, Germany
- Heike K. Lotze
- Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
- H. Damon Matthews
- Concordia University, Montreal, Canada
- Darren McCauley
- Erasmus University of Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Desta Mebratu
- South Africa Centre for Sustainability Transitions (CST), University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa Addis Ababa University Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Nadine Mengis
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- Rachael H. Nolan
- ORCiD
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
- Erik Pihl
- ORCiD
- Future Earth Global Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden
- Stefan Rahmstorf
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Aaron Redman
- ORCiD
- Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- Colleen E. Reid
- University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- Johan Rockström
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Joeri Rogelj
- Imperial College London, London, UK International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- Marielle Saunois
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, France
- Lizzie Sayer
- International Science Council, Paris, France
- Peter Schlosser
- Global Futures Laboratory, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- Giles B. Sioen
- Future Earth Global Secretariat, Tokyo, Japan National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
- Joachim H. Spangenberg
- Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Cologne, Germany
- Detlef Stammer
- University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- Thomas N.S. Sterner
- University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Nicola Stevens
- University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Kirsten Thonicke
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Hanqin Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA
- Ricarda Winkelmann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- James Woodcock
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 4
Abstract
Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
Keywords
- adaptation and mitigation
- Earth systems (land
- water and atmospheric)
- ecology and biodiversity
- economics
- policies
- politics and governance
