Reduction in vehicular emissions attributable to the Covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai: insights from 5 years of monitoring-based machine learning

Abstract

Exposure to elemental carbon (EC) and NOx is a public health issue that has been gaining increasing interest, with high exposure levels generally observed in traffic environments, e.g., roadsides. Shanghai, home to approximately 25 million in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China, has one of the most intensive traffic activity levels in the world. However, our understanding of the trend in vehicular emissions and, in particular, in response to the strict Covid-19 lockdown is limited partly due to the lack of a long-term observation dataset and application of advanced mathematical models. In this study, NOx and EC were continuously monitored at a sampling site near a highway in western Shanghai for 5 years (2016–2020). The long-term dataset was used to train the machine learning model, rebuilding NOx and EC in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2020. The reduction in NOx and EC attributable to the lockdown was found to be smaller than it appeared because the first week of the lockdown overlapped with the Lunar New Year holiday, whereas, at a later stage of the lockdown, the reduction (50 %–70 %) attributable to the lockdown was more significant, consistent with the satellite monitoring of NO2 showing reduced traffic on a regional scale. In contrast, the impact of the lockdown on vehicular emissions cannot be represented well by simply comparing the concentration before and during the lockdown for conventional campaigns. This study demonstrates the value of continuous air pollutant monitoring at a roadside on a long-term basis. Combined with the advanced mathematical model, air quality changes due to future emission control and/or event-driven scenarios are expected to be better predicted.