Extreme values in SIR epidemic models with two strains and cross-immunity

Abstract

The paper explores the dynamics of extreme values in an SIR (susceptible → infectious → removed) epidemic model with two strains of a disease. The strains are assumed to be perfectly distinguishable, instantly diagnosed and each strain of the disease confers immunity against the second strain, thus showing total cross-immunity. The aim is to derive the joint probability distribution of the maximum number of individuals simultaneously infected during an outbreak and the time to reach such a maximum number for the first time. Specifically, this distribution is analyzed by distinguishing between a global outbreak and the local outbreaks, which are linked to the extinction of the disease and the extinction of particular strains of the disease, respectively. Based on the mass function of the maximum number of individuals simultaneously infected during the outbreak, we also present an iterative procedure for computing the final size of the epidemic. For illustrative purposes, the two-strain SIR-model with cross-immunity is applied to the study of the spread of antibiotic-sensitive and antibiotic-resistant bacterial strains within a hospital ward.

Keywords

• epidemics
• extreme values
• final size
• multi-type sir-model
• qbd process