The role of anticipatory humanitarian action to reduce disaster displacement

Abstract

Displacement due to weather and climate-related events (disaster displacement), including the adverse effects of climate change, is one of the greatest humanitarian challenges of the 21st century. Even though the forecasting of extreme events and early warning systems has improved globally, less attention has been given to translating anticipatory humanitarian action into the disaster displacement context with the aim to minimize forced displacement from extreme weather events through pre-allocated funds for the readiness, pre-positioning and activation costs. In this analysis, we assess the opportunities and challenges associated with utilising forecast-based financing (FbF) to expand anticipatory and early humanitarian action, based on the structured judgements of experts. These multi-disciplinary experts agree that FbF can reduce displacement risks and address the humanitarian impacts of disaster displacement early, or before a hazard materializes. We propose four action steps along the stages of disaster displacement to provide practical intervention points for researchers and practitioners. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings and outline next steps. By integrating cross-disciplinary expert judgement, this paper provides a much-needed pathway to transform humanitarian action to be more anticipatory and adaptable to change, and help minimize disaster displacement in climate change vulnerable regions.

Keywords

• climate change impacts
• anticipatory humanitarian action
• forecast-based financing
• displacement
• human mobility
• expert assessment