Наука Красноярья (Feb 2016)
ELECTIONS OF DEPUTIES OF LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY OF KRASNOYARSK KRAI – 2016: PRELIMINARY FORECAST
Abstract
Article purpose – creation of the electoral forecast about passing political parties on proportional system in legislative assembly of Krasnoyarsk Krai in September, 2016 and an assessment of prospects of re-election of the acting deputies in the one-mandatory districts located in Krasnoyarsk. Relevance of a subject of research is caused by important role which the regional parliament plays in system of public administration of edge. The used methods – sociological poll of the population and the analysis of electoral statistics. Results of the conducted researches allow to construct the following electoral forecast (as of the end of February, 2016). Firstly, the regional parliament under the proportional system must go through the party “United Russia” (in first place), the Communist Party, “Patriots of Russia” and LDPR. “Fair Russia” on the verge of overcoming the five percent election threshold. Theoretical chance of getting into parliament is the party “Rodina”. The rest of the parties is practically have no chance. Secondly, on elections of deputies of regional parliament by the majority principle in Krasnoyarsk the acting deputies A.V. Uss and A.P. Bykov shouldn’t have problems with the next re-election, unlike V.A. Fokin. Prospects of obtaining mandates by other deputies aren’t so much obvious and will depend in many respects on competition level in districts. Prospects of obtaining mandates by other deputies aren’t so much obvious and will depend in many respects on competition level in districts. Thirdly, the voter turnout in September, 2016, most likely, will be lower, and at a certain development of an electoral situation, is much lower, than on the previous elections in 2011 (49,7%). The received results can be of interest to authorities, political parties, the candidates standing for authorities and are used during the developing and realization of strategy and tactics of conducting election campaigns at elections of deputies of regional parliament.
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