Études Caribéennes (Aug 2014)
L’application de l’accord de partenariat économique Cariforum-UE et ses implications potentielles sur les économies des états de la Caraïbe et des départements français d’Amérique : approche en équilibre général calculable et par un modèle de gravité
Abstract
The present paper seeks to provide an assessment of the likely implications of the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on economy of Caribbean states and French Caribbean Outermost Regions (FCORs). Two models are used for that a computable general equilibrium model (GTAP model), applied to CARIFORUM countries, and a gravity model framework applied to French Caribbean Outermost Regions. The main findings from application of the computable general equilibrium model can be outlined as follows in case of full reciprocity between the partners in merchandise trade, the results show that impacts are contrasted among the economies. The effects appear positive for some countries, sectors and negative for the others. Tariff reductions will translate into a decline in government revenue and a degradation of their balance of payments. The well-being of CARIFORUM households has improved very lightly (0.04%). On the other hands, the application of the gravity model framework reveals several barriers to regional trade between French Caribbean Outermost Regions and their neighbours, particularly their strong institutional and economic links with continental France, responsible for a high labour cost and a lack of autonomy with regard to international trade. The study also highlights that French language is an obstacle to trade across the Caribbean, due to the fact it is a minority in this region, as well as absence of FCORs in main economic and trade agreements of Caribbean. Finally the paper finds that there is high degree of similarity of exports among the countries and territories in the Caribbean.
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