Overconfidence: comparative analysis of cognitive judgment ability between market professionals and undergraduate students

Abstract

The present research aims to verify the relation of the cognitive bias overconfidence between market professionals and undergraduate students. The data collection procedure was done by applying a questionnaire with questions usually known as almanac questions, and for each question, the individual points out their confidence level in the given answer. The research had a sample of 424 individuals from the three scientific areas: Exact Sciences, Life Sciences and Humanities, composed by 270 undergraduate students and 154 already established professionals. The model formulated by Murphy (1973) was applied for the analysis of the excess of confidence, whose formula derived from the Brier Score. Relationships regarding calibration were also verified by using the methodology of Lichtenstein, Fischhoff and Phillips (1982), and acuity, the proportion of correct answers. The results showed that market professionals are more overconfident than undergraduates. Students had more correct answers proportionally in each confidence category but obtained a lower calibration in their probability judgments. In addition, the research concluded about the relationship between overconfidence, acuity and calibration with regard to the specialization of professionals, gender, the three scientific areas and the individual's age, among the most representative courses of the sample and the difficulty level of the questions.

Keywords

• excesso de confiança
• profissionais
• estudantes