Impact of climate change on the water resources of the Atbara River using novel hydrological models

Abstract

Rivers respond directly to climate change, as well as incorporating the effects of climate-driven changes occurring within their watersheds. In this research, climate change's impact on the Atbara River, one of the main tributaries of the Nile River, was studied. Various statistical methods of analysis were applied to study the basic characteristics of the climatic parameters that affect the discharge of the Atbara River. The three hydrological gauging stations on the Atbara River, namely, the Upper Atbara and Setit reservoirs, Khashm el-Girba reservoir, and Atbara Kilo 3 station, were included in the study. The correlation between the meteorological parameters and the hydrology of the Atbara River and the prediction of the future hydrology of the Atbara River Basin was determined. Many hydrological models were developed and tested to predict the hydrology of the river. Finally, forecasting for river hydrology was built. No significant trend was found in the precipitation in the study area. The developed model simulates the observed data with a high coefficient of determination ranging from 0.7 to 0.91 for the three hydrological gauging stations studied. Results predicted a slight decrease in river discharge in future years. HIGHLIGHTS This article developed a new tool for the Atbara River to predict discharge.; Future discharge predictions were extracted from the model using projected climate data from CORDEX regional climate models with two emissions scenarios: the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 scenarios.; The climate change impact on the Atbara River discharge may be slightly negative.; Standard precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and trend of climatic and hydrological elements were investigated.;

Keywords

• atbara river
• climate change
• hydrology
• modelling
• trend