Past and Future Responses of Soil Water to Climate Change in Tropical and Subtropical Rainforest Systems in South America
Santiago M. Márquez Arévalo,
Rafael Coll Delgado,
Douglas da Silva Lindemann,
Yuri A. Gelsleichter,
Marcos Gervasio Pereira,
Rafael de Ávila Rodrigues,
Flávio Barbosa Justino,
Henderson Silva Wanderley,
Everaldo Zonta,
Romário Oliveira de Santana,
Renato Sinquini de Souza
Affiliations
Santiago M. Márquez Arévalo
Graduate Program in Applied Meteorology, Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), Viçosa 36570-900, Brazil
Rafael Coll Delgado
Department of Environmental Sciences, Forest Institute, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropédica 23897-000, Brazil
Douglas da Silva Lindemann
Faculty of Meteorology, Federal University of Pelotas, University Campus, S/N, Building 110, Capão do Leão 96160-000, Brazil
Yuri A. Gelsleichter
Department of Soil Science, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Páter Károly u. 1, H-2100 Gödöllő, Hungary
Marcos Gervasio Pereira
Department of Soils, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropédica 23897-000, Brazil
Rafael de Ávila Rodrigues
Special Academic Unit Institute of Geography, Federal University Catalão, Goiás 75704-020, Brazil
Flávio Barbosa Justino
Department of Agricultural Engineering—Room 121A, Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), Viçosa 36570-900, Brazil
Henderson Silva Wanderley
Department of Environmental Sciences, Forest Institute, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropédica 23897-000, Brazil
Everaldo Zonta
Department of Soils, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropédica 23897-000, Brazil
Romário Oliveira de Santana
Department of Economics, State University of Santa Cruz (UESC), Ilhéus 45662-000, Brazil
Renato Sinquini de Souza
Department of Soils, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropédica 23897-000, Brazil
The present study aimed to contribute to the diagnosis and advance the knowledge of the impacts of land use change and climate change on the tropical longleaf forest biome at the continental scale in South America (Biome 1 according to the WWF classification) for realizing scientific progress in the search for convincing strategies and actions by different actors for the preservation of forests in the continent. The status and climate of the area, which harbors the tropical longleaf forests of South America, were assessed. Moreover, volumetric soil moisture (VSM) was evaluated through maps and simulation using the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). Furthermore, future climate scenarios were predicted based on El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomena, meteorological systems, and scientific evidence, such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and sociopolitical dynamics evident in the region from the case analysis of the Brazilian states of Acre and Rio de Janeiro. An increase was noted in the temperature and range of precipitation variation in the biome. ARIMA analysis indicated changes of up to 0.24 m3 m−3 and an increased range of future VSM values. The December–January–February (DJF) quarter recorded the highest VSM median with the measurement scale of 0.05 to 0.44 m3 m−3, while the June–July–August (JJA) quarter recorded the lowest value. The regions of the biome with the lowest VSM values included southern Amazon (Ecuador, Peru, and the Brazilian states of Acre, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Maranhão), Brazilian Atlantic Forest, Southeast Region, and the Brazilian state of Bahia.
