Market instability and the size-variance relationship

Abstract

Abstract We show that some key features of the behavior of mutual funds is accounted for by a stochastic model of proportional growth. We find that the negative dependence of the variance of funds’ growth rates on size is well described by an approximate power law. We discover that during periods of crisis the volatility of the largest funds’ growth rates increases with respect to mid-sized funds. Our result reveals that a lower and flatter slope provides relevant information on the structure of the system. We find that growth rates volatility poorly depends on the size of the funds, thus questioning the benefits of diversification achieved by larger funds. Our findings show that the slope of the size-variance relationship can be used as a synthetic indicator to monitor the intensity of instabilities and systemic risk in financial markets.