Extreme wave analysis based on atmospheric pattern classification: an application along the Italian coast

Abstract

This paper provides a methodology for classifying samples of significant wave-height peaks in homogeneous subsets in terms of the atmospheric circulation patterns behind the observed extreme wave conditions. Then, a methodology is given for the computation of the overall extreme value distribution by starting from the distributions fitted to each single subset. To this end, the k-means clustering technique is used to classify the shape of the wind fields that occurred simultaneously to and prior to the occurrences of the extreme wave events. This results in a small number of characteristic circulation patterns related to as many subsets of extreme wave values. After fitting an extreme value distribution to each subset, bootstrapping is used to reconstruct the omni-circulation pattern's extreme value distribution. The methodology is applied to several locations along the Italian buoy network, and it is concluded from the obtained results that it yields a two-fold advantage: first, it is capable of identifying clearly differentiated subsets driven by homogeneous circulation patterns; second, it allows one to estimate high-return-period quantiles consistent with those resulting from the usual extreme value analysis. In particular, the circulation patterns highlighted are analyzed in the context of the Mediterranean Sea's atmospheric climatology and are shown to be due to well-known cyclonic systems typically crossing the Mediterranean basin.