The Data set for Patient Information Based Algorithm to Predict Mortality Cause by COVID-19
Jing Li,
Lishi Wang,
Sumin Guo,
Ning Xie,
Lan Yao,
Yanhong Cao,
Sara W. Day,
Scott C. Howard,
J. Carolyn Graff,
Tianshu Gu,
Jiafu Ji,
Weikuan Gu,
Dianjun Sun
Affiliations
Jing Li
Department of Orthopedic Surgery and BME-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, Tennessee, 38163, USA.
Lishi Wang
Department of Orthopedic Surgery and BME-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, Tennessee, 38163, USA.; Department of Basic Medicine, Inner Mongolia Medical University, Inner Mongolia, 010110, P. R. China.
Sumin Guo
Department of Oncology, Hebei Chest Hospital, Lung Cancer Control and Prevention Center of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, 050041, P. R. China.
Ning Xie
College of Business, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40292, USA.
Lan Yao
Health Outcomes and Policy Research, College of Graduate Health Sciences, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38103, USA.; Center for Endemic Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin Medical University; Key Laboratory of Etiologic Epidemiology, Education Bureau of Heilongjiang Province & Ministry of Health (23618104), 157 Baojian Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150081, P. R. China.
Yanhong Cao
Center for Endemic Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin Medical University; Key Laboratory of Etiologic Epidemiology, Education Bureau of Heilongjiang Province & Ministry of Health (23618104), 157 Baojian Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150081, P. R. China.
Sara W. Day
College of Nursing, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38105, USA.
Scott C. Howard
College of Nursing, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38105, USA.
J. Carolyn Graff
College of Nursing, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN 38105, USA.
Tianshu Gu
Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, PR China.
Jiafu Ji
Beijing Cancer Hospital and Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research, Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Peking University Cancer Hospital and Institute, Beijing 100142, P. R. China.
Weikuan Gu
Department of Orthopedic Surgery and BME-Campbell Clinic, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, Tennessee, 38163, USA.; Research Service, Memphis VA Medical Center, 1030 Jefferson Avenue, Memphis, TN, 38104, USA.; Corresponding author: Weikuan Gu, 956 Court Avenue, Memphis, TN 38163, USA.
Dianjun Sun
Center for Endemic Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Harbin Medical University; Key Laboratory of Etiologic Epidemiology, Education Bureau of Heilongjiang Province & Ministry of Health (23618104), 157 Baojian Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150081, P. R. China.; Corresponding author: Dianjun Sun, 157 Baojian Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150081, P. R. China.
The data of COVID-19 disease in China and then in South Korea were collected daily from several different official websites. The collected data included 33 death cases in Wuhan city of Hubei province during early outbreak as well as confirmed cases and death toll in some specific regions, which were chosen as representatives from the perspective of the coronavirus outbreak in China. Data were copied and pasted onto Excel spreadsheets to perform data analysis.A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1], has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. Assumption is that the number of days from inpatients to death fall into a pattern of normal distribution and the scores in normal distribution can be obtained by observing 33 death cases and analysing the data [2]. We selected 5 scores in normal distribution of these durations as lagging days, which will be used in the following estimation of death rate. We calculated each death rate on accumulative confirmed cases with each lagging day from the current data and then weighted every death rate with its corresponding possibility to obtain the total death rate on each day. While the trendline of these death rate curves meet the curve of current ratio between accumulative death cases and confirmed cases at some points in the near future, we considered that these intersections are within the range of real death rates.Six tables were presented to illustrate the PIBA method using data from China and South Korea. One figure on estimated rate of infection and patients in serious condition and retrospective estimation of initially occurring time of CORID-19 based on PIBA.
