Wellcome Open Research (Feb 2022)

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 2; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

  • Sophie Uyoga,
  • Ambrose Agweyu,
  • Rabia Aziza,
  • Edwine Barasa,
  • Benjamin Tsofa,
  • Philip Bejon,
  • Edward Otieno,
  • Morris Ogero,
  • John Ojal,
  • Vincent Were,
  • Samuel P. C. Brand,
  • Ivy K. Kombe,
  • Emelda A. Okiro,
  • George M. Warimwe,
  • Caroline Mburu,
  • J. Anthony G. Scott,
  • Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa,
  • Charles N. Agoti,
  • Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier,
  • Patrick Amoth,
  • Kadondi Kasera,
  • Rashid Aman,
  • Mercy Mwangangi,
  • Matt J. Keeling,
  • Wangari Ng’ang’a,
  • D. James Nokes

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 6

Abstract

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Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.

Keywords