MEASURING OF THE ECONOMIC CYCLE ON THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE CZECH CONSTRUCTION SECTOR BY THE MEANS OF NAIRU

Abstract

The paper is concerned with the economic cycle on the labour market in the whole national economy and in the construction sector of the Czech Republic, working with NAIRU. This variable is estimated with the use of the consumer price index and the construction work price index. By comparing the obtained NAIRU values with the real unemployment rates we determine the phase of the economic cycle. We verify the localised phases of the cycle on the labour market in the national economy and in the construction sector with the development of the real unemployment rate and the added value. Thanks to this approach we get the insight into the development of unstable periods on the labour market.

Keywords

• Economic cycle
• Phillips curve
• NAIRU
• HP filter
• Kalman filter
• Stochastic trend
• Unemployment gap