Storm Surge Forecasting along Korea Strait Using Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

Typhoon attacks on the Korean Peninsula have recently become more frequent, and the strength of these typhoons is also gradually increasing because of climate change. Typhoon attacks cause storm surges in coastal regions; therefore, forecasts that enable advanced preparation for these storm surges are important. Because storm surge forecasts require both accuracy and speed, this study uses an artificial neural network algorithm suitable for nonlinear modeling and rapid computation. A storm surge forecast model was created for five tidal stations on the Korea Strait (southern coast of the Korean Peninsula), and the accuracy of its forecasts was verified. The model consisted of a deep neural network and convolutional neural network that represent the two-dimensional spatial characteristics. Data from the Global Forecast System numerical weather model were used as input to represent the spatial characteristics. The verification of the forecast accuracy revealed an absolute relative error of ≤5% for the five tidal stations. Therefore, it appears that the proposed method can be used for forecasts for other locations in the Korea Strait. Furthermore, because accurate forecasts can be computed quickly, the method is expected to provide rapid information for use in the field to support advance preparation for storm surges.

Keywords

• typhoon
• storm surge
• convolutional neural network (CNN)
• deep neural network (DNN)
• global forecast system (GFS)