The Huashan risk calculators performed better in prediction of prostate cancer in Chinese population: a training study followed by a validation study

Abstract

The performances of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator and other risk calculators for prostate cancer (PCa) prediction in Chinese populations were poorly understood. We performed this study to build risk calculators (Huashan risk calculators) based on Chinese population and validated the performance of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PCPT risk calculator, and Huashan risk calculators in a validation cohort. We built Huashan risk calculators based on data from 1059 men who underwent initial prostate biopsy from January 2006 to December 2010 in a training cohort. Then, we validated the performance of PSA, PCPT risk calculator, and Huashan risk calculators in an observational validation study from January 2011 to December 2014. All necessary clinical information were collected before the biopsy. The results showed that Huashan risk calculators 1 and 2 outperformed the PCPT risk calculator for predicting PCa in both entire training cohort and stratified population (with PSA from 2.0 ng ml−1 to 20.0 ng m). In the validation study, Huashan risk calculator 1 still outperformed the PCPT risk calculator in the entire validation cohort (0.849 vs 0.779 in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] and stratified population. A considerable reduction of unnecessary biopsies (approximately 30%) was also observed when the Huashan risk calculators were used. Thus, we believe that the Huashan risk calculators (especially Huashan risk calculator 1) may have added value for predicting PCa in Chinese population. However, these results still needed further evaluation in larger populations.

Keywords

• biopsy; China; prostate cancer; prostate-specific antigen; risk calculator