Systems (Oct 2024)
Integrated Systematic Framework for Forecasting China’s Consumer Confidence: A Machine Learning Approach
Abstract
This study aims to introduce a novel approach for predicting China’s consumer confidence index (CCI), a key economic indicator that reflects consumers’ confidence in current and future economic conditions. While traditional statistical models and economic indicators are the primary tools for forecasting CCI, their reliance on linear assumptions limits their ability to capture the complex, dynamic relationships inherent in economic systems. In response, this study proposes a two-step method that integrates social network analysis (SNA) and machine learning (ML) to enhance prediction accuracy by accounting for the nonlinear interactions and systemic interdependencies that drive consumer confidence. The use of SNA enables the identification of critical variables and their interconnected roles in shaping consumer sentiment, while ML models, specifically the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), leverage these relationships to provide more precise predictions. Utilizing monthly data from 1999 to 2023, the combined SNA and GBDT approach significantly improves the accuracy of CCI forecasts, particularly during periods of high volatility. The results of this study hold substantial value for policymakers, market analysts, and economists, as they offer a systems-oriented framework for economic forecasting. By demonstrating the effectiveness of combining SNA with ML technologies, this research not only advances the methodological toolkit for economic forecasting, but also provides a new lens through which the complex, adaptive nature of economic systems can be better understood and managed. This integrated approach paves the way for future developments in forecasting models that more accurately reflect the evolving dynamics of consumer confidence in a rapidly changing economic environment.
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