How Prediction Accuracy Can Affect the Decision-Making Process in Pavement Management System

Abstract

One of the most important components of pavement management systems is predicting the deterioration of the network through performance models. The accuracy of the prediction model is important for prioritizing maintenance action. This paper describes how the accuracy of prediction models can have an effect on the decision-making process in terms of the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The process is simulating the propagation of the error between the actual and predicted values of pavement performance indicators. Different rate of error (10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90%) was added into the result of prediction models. The results showed a strong correlation between the prediction models’ accuracy and the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The cost of treatment (in millions of dollars) over 20 years for five different scenarios increased from ($54.07–$92.95), ($53.89–$155.48), and ($74.41–$107.77) for asphalt, composite, and concrete pavement types, respectively. Increasing the rate of error also contributed to the prediction model, resulting in a higher benefit reduction rate.

Keywords

• pavement deterioration modeling
• decision-making
• prediction accuracy
• Pavement Management System (PMS), maintenance assignment
• optimization
• Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)