Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Factors in Chengdu Plain

Abstract

Cultivated land is the cornerstone of grain production and the basic resource to ensure food security. Understanding the non-grain production status of cultivated land in the main grain-producing areas of western China is necessary to provide a basis for regional sustainable agricultural development and cultivated land protection decision-making. In this study, Chengdu Plain was selected as an empirical research area. A mathematical quantization model and spatial autocorrelation method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of non-grain production of cultivated land in Chengdu Plain, and an econometric model was constructed to identify its driving factors. The results showed that the cultivated land area did not change significantly in the Chengdu Plain from 2000 to 2019; however, the small change in cultivated land area did not mean that its actual use changed little, and the non-grain production status of cultivated land was obvious. (1) From 2000 to 2019, both the Non-Grain production Area (NGA) and the Non-Grain production Rate (NGR) in Chengdu Plain showed a fluctuating and increasing trend, with an increased rate of 4.40% and 13.53%, respectively, which indicates that cultivated land protection and food security were under great pressure. (2) In terms of space, the NGA in 34 districts and counties of Chengdu Plain presents a multi-center scattered distribution, which shows a spatial pattern of high in the center and low in the northeast and southwest, and the NGA's spatial agglomeration areas are concentrated in Chengdu and its neighboring cities. (3) Economic Crop Planting Scale (ECPS), Agricultural Structure Adjustment (ASA), Urbanization Rate (UR), and Cultivated Land Protection Policy (CLPP) are the most important factors affecting the non-grain transformation of cultivated land in Chengdu Plain. Some suggestions are proposed: red lines should be drawn to implement a control system for cultivated land use; departmental collaboration must be strengthened to build a synergy of cultivated land protection; the agricultural subsidy system must be improved to defend farmers' fundamental rights and interests; and policy advocacy for cultivated land protection should be enhanced to raise food security awareness. This study can better reflect the non-grain production status of cultivated land in Chengdu Plain, and from the spatial unit of district and county, it provides a good perspective for the study of the non-grain production of cultivated land. This study also provides a scientific foundation for decision-making regarding regional sustainable agricultural development and cultivated land protection.

Keywords

• non-grain production of cultivated land
• theoretical mechanism
• spatiotemporal characteristics
• driving factors
• chengdu plain