Predicting apheresis yield and factors affecting peripheral blood stem cell harvesting using a machine learning model

Abstract

Objective Mobilization and collection of peripheral blood stem cells (PBSCs) are time-intensive and costly. Excessive apheresis sessions can cause physical discomfort for donors and increase the costs associated with collection. Therefore, it is essential to identify key predictive factors for successful harvests to minimize the need for multiple apheresis procedures. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 88 PBSC donations at our hospital. Mobilization involved disease-specific chemotherapy plus human recombinant granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF; lenograstim) or G-CSF alone for 5 days, followed by apheresis on day 5. The baseline characteristics of donors, pre-apheresis complete blood counts, and CD34+ cells were evaluated. Univariate logistic regression, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm, and multivariate logistic regression were applied to select significant predictive variables. The multivariate logistic regression results were integrated into various machine learning models to assess predictive accuracy. Results The percentage of pre-collection monocytes (Mono%), age, and CD34+ cell percentage (CD34+ cell%) were identified as significant independent factors that could accurately predict the success of an initial PBSC harvest. Conclusions We used machine learning methods to identify and validate Mono%, age, and CD34+ cell% as significant factors predictive of successful PBSC harvest on the first attempt, offering important insight to guide the clinical harvesting of PBSCs.