Dynamics of time-varying currency beta on Indian industries: A Markov switching approach

Abstract

We examine the dynamics of time-varying currency beta across Indian industries. Through the Markov regime switching model we try to check whether currency beta is also regime-dependent, similar to other financial variables. The paper finds that currency betas are different in sign and magnitude for different industries. During different crisis periods, the nature of currency beta revealed different volatility for different industries. Results also exhibit strong evidence of regime switch behaviour of currency beta. The findings are important to hedgers and portfolio managers who want to hedge and diversify currency beta during normal and turbulent market situations in an emerging economy like India.

Keywords

• Forex exposure
• Indian industry
• Markov regime switching model
• Time-varying conditional
• Currency beta