Risk perception of IQOS™ and cigarettes: Temporal and cross-country comparisons

Abstract

Background: Risk perception (RP) is central to smokers’ decision to switch to smoke-free tobacco and nicotine products (TNP). This study assessed temporal trends in the health RP of a novel heated tobacco product, IQOSTM, relative to cigarettes, among current IQOSTM users. Methods: The analyses included repeated cross-sectional data from online surveys in Germany (2018–19), Italy (2018–19), and Japan (2016–17, 2017–18, and 2018–19) among a random sample of current adult IQOSTM users from local registers of IQOSTM users. The health RPs of cigarettes and IQOSTM were assessed using the ABOUT™–Perceived Risk instrument, and their difference was described as the relative RP of IQOSTM to cigarettes (RPCig:IQOSTM). Results: After adjustment for covariates, the relative RPCig:IQOSTM was higher in 2018 than in 2019 (0.93; standard error, 0.33; P = 0.005). This was driven by an increase in the RP of IQOSTM over time in Italy (2018: 42.6 [95% CI, 41.6–43.5]; 2019: 44.4 [43.4–45.4]) and Japan (2017: 44.0 [43.1–44.9); 2018: 45.9 [45.2–46.7]; 2019: 48.6 [47.9–49.4]), while the RP of cigarettes remained stable. Conclusions: The relative RP of IQOSTM decreased over time, driven by an increase in the RP of IQOSTM, in agreement with epidemiological studies indicating a temporal reduction in the relative RP of smoke-free TNPs. Continued surveillance of the RP of novel TNPs is warranted to inform effective TNP risk communication and ensure that adults smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke understand the relative risks of novel TNPs.

Keywords

• Public health
• Epidemiology
• Harm reduction
• Risk perception
• Tobacco
• Heated tobacco product