Machine Learning-Based Calibrated Model for Forecast Vienna Mapping Function 3 Zenith Wet Delay

Abstract

An accurate estimation of zenith wet delay (ZWD) is crucial for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning and GNSS-based precipitable water vapor (PWV) inversion. The forecast Vienna Mapping Function 3 (VMF3-FC) is a forecast product provided by the Vienna Mapping Functions (VMF) data server based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The VMF3-FC can provide ZWD at any time and for any location worldwide; however, it has an uneven accuracy distribution and fails to match the application requirements in certain areas. To address this issue, in this study, a calibrated model for VMF3-FC ZWD, named the XZWD model, was developed by utilizing observation data from 492 radiosonde sites globally from 2019–2021 and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. The performance of the XZWD model was validated using 2022 observation data from the 492 radiosonde sites. The XZWD model yields a mean bias of −0.03 cm and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.64 cm. The XZWD model outperforms the global pressure and temperature 3 (GPT3) model, reducing the bias and RMSE by 94.64% and 58.90%, respectively. Meanwhile, the XZWD model outperforms VMF3-FC, with a reduction of 92.68% and 6.29% in bias and RMSE, respectively. Furthermore, the XZWD model reduces the impact of ZWD accuracy by latitude, height, and seasonal variations more effectively than the GPT3 model and VMF3-FC. Therefore, the XZWD model yields higher stability and accuracy in global ZWD forecasting.

Keywords

• zenith wet delay (ZWD)
• calibrated model
• forecast Vienna Mapping Function 3 (VMF3-FC)
• eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm