The role of NOx emission reductions in Euro 7/VII vehicle emission standards to reduce adverse health impacts in the EU27 through 2050

Abstract

Air pollution is the single greatest environmental health hazard in Europe, responsible for over 300,000 premature deaths in the EU27 in 2019. Transport is a significant contributor toward the emission of air pollutants which reduce life expectancy through increased likelihood of morbidity-associated diseases. The introduction of the Euro vehicle emission standards has been successful in driving down the overall level of transport related air pollutants. However, the current regulatory limits have not been updated in nearly a decade. Furthermore, deviations are still evident between the type-approval standards and real-world emissions recorded through remote sensing. Based on the technology potential of current emission control systems, a feasible reduction in new vehicle emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) of up to 80% applicable to light- and heavy-duty vehicles that could be realized through the upcoming revision of the Euro standards is modelled. A multi-model approach is employed, combining a stock simulation model and a health impact model which applies the latest methodology of the Global Burden of Disease to quantify the cumulative emissions reduction and corresponding health impacts in the EU27 through 2050. Mandating such a NOx reduction for new vehicles from 2027 would result in a 93-98% reduction in annual NOx emissions from transport by 2050, and reduce cumulative emissions by 4.2-5 million tonnes over the 2027-2050 period. The corresponding reduction in levels of particulate matter and ozone would prevent 34,675 - 41,645 premature deaths, and 568,374 - 682,513 years of life lost. Heavy-duty vehicles experience greater relative emissions reductions compared to their light-duty counterparts due to the current slower deployment of zero-emission vehicles in the sector.