A flexible and precise model for the dynamics of animal diseases with single outbreaks

Abstract

This article provides a general and accurate mathematical model for the epidemics dynamics of a large class of animal diseases. The issue is to offer to the scientist interested in applications a quite concise and practicable explanation how to validitate the model parameters by means of the software tool Microsoft Excel®. Furthermore, predictions concerning hypothetical scenarii can easily be obtained on the basis of this concept. As specific examples, calculations are presented for the BSE epidemics in the British UK and for an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in a district of Lower Austria.

Keywords

• epidemics
• animal diseases
• mathematical model
• bse
• foot-and-mouth disease