Disease Burden of Gallbladder Cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and the Analysis of Its Future Trends

Abstract

Background Gallbladder cancer is featured by difficult early detection, poor treatment effectiveness and high mortality. An in-depth epidemiology research of gallbladder cancer can provide valuable data for the formulation of prevention and treatment strategies for gallbladder cancer. Objective To analyze the trend of disease burden of gallbladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, and to estimate its onset age, period, cohort effects and future trends. Methods Data of disease burden of gallbladder cancer, including the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life year (DALYs) rate and corresponding standardized rates in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Research (GBD 2019) database from March to June 2023. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using Joinpoint to analyze the trend of disease burden of gallbladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) model was created to predict the incidence of gallbladder cancer in China from 2020 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate of gallbladder cancer in China significantly rose from 1.58/100 000 in 1990 to 2.01/100 000 in 2019, with the AAPC of 0.82% (95%CI=0.65%-1.00%, P<0.001). The standardized prevalence significantly rose from 1.64/100 000 in 1990 to 2.40/100 000 in 2019, with the AAPC of 1.34% (95%CI=1.14%-1.54%, P<0.001). The standardized mortality significantly rose from 1.61/100 000 in 1990 to 1.82/100 000 in 2019, with the AAPC of 0.40% (95%CI=0.24%-0.56%, P<0.001). The standardized DALYs rate significantly rose from 35.18/100 000 in 1990 to 37.71/100 000 in 2019, with the AAPC of 0.25% (95%CI=0.12%-0.38%, P<0.001). The BAPC model revealed that the net drift values for the incidence and mortality of gallbladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were 0.99 (95%CI=0.81-1.18) and 0.42 (95%CI=0.21-0.63), respectively. The incidence and mortality of gallbladder cancer increased with age, and the incidence of gallbladder cancer achieved the peak in people aged 80 years and above. The risk of onset and death of gallbladder cancer showed a decreasing trend at first and then an increasing trend followed by a decreasing trend over time, both of which peaked from 2005 to 2009. In addition, the risk of onset and death of gallbladder cancer showed an increasing trend at first and then a decreasing trend over the time of birth cohort. The BAPC model predicted that the standardized incidence, morbidity, mortality and DALYs rate of gallbladder cancer in China will show a slight upward trend from 2020 to 2030. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs rate of gallbladder cancer in China showed an upward trend, and the disease burden was still serious. The prevention and treatment of gallbladder cancer among men and the elderly, and vigorous propaganda of medical knowledge about cancer prevention, biliary disease control and promotion of healthy lifestyles should be strengthen to reduce the disease burden of gallbladder cancer.

Keywords

• gallbladder neoplasms|gallbladder cancer|global burden of disease|incidence|prevalence|mortality|disability-adjusted life years|trend analysis