Revalidation Technique on Landslide Susceptibility Modelling: An Approach to Local Level Disaster Risk Management in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility modelling in tropical climates is hindered by incomplete inventory due to rapid development and natural processes that obliterate field evidence, making validation a challenge. Susceptibility modelling was conducted in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia using a new spatial partitioning technique for cross-validation. This involved a series of two alternating east-west linear zones, where the first zone served as the training dataset and the second zone was the test dataset, and vice versa. The results show that the susceptibility models have good compatibility with the selected landslide conditioning factors and high predictive accuracy. The model with the highest area under curve (AUC) values (SRC = 0.92, PRC = 0.90) was submitted to the City Council of Kuala Lumpur for land use planning and development control. Rainfall-induced landslides are prominent within the study area, especially during the monsoon period. An extreme rainfall event in December 2021 that triggered 122 landslides provided an opportunity to conduct retrospective validation of the model; the high predictive capability (AUC of PRC = 0.93) was reaffirmed. The findings proved that retrospective validation is vital for landslide susceptibility modelling, especially where the inventory is not of the best quality. This is to encourage wider usage and acceptance among end users, especially decision-makers in cities, to support disaster risk management in a changing climate.

Keywords

• landslide susceptibility
• validation
• predictive capability
• disaster risk
• tropical climate
• Malaysia