Nature Communications (Jan 2021)

Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo—Brazil

  • Osmar Pinto Neto,
  • Deanna M. Kennedy,
  • José Clark Reis,
  • Yiyu Wang,
  • Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi,
  • Gustavo José Zambrano,
  • Joabe Marcos de Souza,
  • Wellington Pedroso,
  • Rodrigo Cunha de Mello Pedreiro,
  • Bruno de Matos Brizzi,
  • Ellysson Oliveira Abinader,
  • Renato Amaro Zângaro

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20687-y
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 13

Abstract

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Incidence of COVID-19 has been high in parts of South America including Brazil, and information on effective intervention strategies is needed. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to show that reductions in social distancing should be made gradually to avoid a severe second peak of cases.