Transmission Risk Prediction and Evaluation of Mountain-Type Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis in China Based on Climatic and Environmental Variables
Yuwan Hao,
Zhuowei Luo,
Jian Zhao,
Yanfeng Gong,
Yuanyuan Li,
Zelin Zhu,
Tian Tian,
Qiang Wang,
Yi Zhang,
Zhengbin Zhou,
Zengyun Hu,
Shizhu Li
Affiliations
Yuwan Hao
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Zhuowei Luo
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Jian Zhao
College of Geography and Remote sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Yanfeng Gong
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Yuanyuan Li
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Zelin Zhu
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Tian Tian
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Qiang Wang
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Yi Zhang
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Zhengbin Zhou
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
Zengyun Hu
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Shizhu Li
National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases; National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, Shanghai 200025, China
With global warming and socioeconomic developments, there is a tendency toward the emergence and spread of mountain-type zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (MT-ZVL) in China. Timely identification of the transmission risk and spread of MT-ZVL is, therefore, of great significance for effectively interrupting the spread of MT-ZVL and eliminating the disease. In this study, 26 environmental variables—namely, climatic, geographical, and 2 socioeconomic indicators were collected from regions where MT-ZVL patients were detected during the period from 2019 to 2021, to create 10 ecological niche models. The performance of these ecological niche models was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS), and ensemble models were created to predict the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China. All ten ecological niche models were effective at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China, and there were significant differences in the mean AUC (H = 33.311, p p 0.95, TSS > 0.85). Ensemble models predicted a transmission risk of MT-ZVL in the provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Gansu, Sichuan, and Hebei, which was centered in Shanxi Province and presented high spatial clustering characteristics. Multiple ensemble ecological niche models created based on climatic and environmental variables are effective at predicting the transmission risk of MT-ZVL in China. This risk is centered in Shanxi Province and tends towards gradual radiation dispersion to surrounding regions. Our results provide insights into MT-ZVL surveillance in regions at high risk of MT-ZVL.
