Risk Assessment and Response Strategy for Pig Epidemics in China

Abstract

Strengthening the analysis and risk assessment of the pig epidemic will help to better prevent and mitigate epidemic risks and promote the high-quality development of the pig industry. Based on a systematic understanding of live pig epidemics, a risk assessment index system was constructed, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of pig epidemics in China were explored by the entropy method. In recent years, the overall trend in pig epidemics over time first increased and then decreased; in space, the acceleration of the spread of epidemics across the country weakened. China still faces challenges, including many types and a wide range of diseases, large total livestock breeding and weak epidemic prevention and control capacity, and a large risk of introduced foreign animal epidemics. The spatial and temporal variations in the pig epidemic risk were obvious; one high-risk area, two medium–high-risk areas and 10 medium-risk areas have been found in recent years, during which time, the epidemic risk was highest in Beijing, Hainan, Liaoning, Tibet and Zhejiang. However, there were significant differences in the regional distribution of the risk level of pig epidemics in different years. To further build a secure “defense system” for the high-quality development of the pig industry, it is recommended to improve the monitoring and early warning system of pig epidemic risk, perfect the pig epidemic prevention and control system, and strengthen the regional collaboration mechanism of epidemic prevention and control.

Keywords

• pig
• animal disease
• African swine fever
• risk assessment
• policy recommendations