External Validation of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index and the Geriatric-Sensitive Perioperative Cardiac Risk Index in Oldest Old Patients Following Surgery Under Spinal Anaesthesia; a Retrospective Cross-Sectional Cohort Study

Abstract

Nirmeen Fayed,1,2 Sally Waheed Elkhadry,3 Andreas Garling,1 Richard K Ellerkmann1,4 1Anethesia and Critical Care Department, Klinikum Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany; 2Anesthesia and Critical Care Department, National Liver Institute Menoufia University, Shebin-Alkoom, Egypt; 3Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine Institute, National Liver Institute, Menoufia University, Shebin-Alkoom, Egypt; 4Anesthesia and Critical Care Department, Bonn University, Bonn, GermanyCorrespondence: Nirmeen Fayed, Anesthesia Department Klinikum Dortmund, Germany, Mollwitzer Straße 4, Dortmund, 44141, Germany, Tel [phone], Email [email protected]: The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and the Geriatric Sensitive Cardiac Risk Index (GSCRI) estimate the risk of postoperative major adverse cardiac events (MACE) regardless of the type of anesthesia and without specifying the oldest old patients. Since spinal anesthesia (SA) is a preferred technique in geriatrics, we aimed to test the external validity of these indices in patients ≥ 80 years old who underwent surgery under SA and tried to identify other potential risk factors for postoperative MACE.Methods: The performance of both indices to estimate postoperative in-hospital MACE risk was tested through discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. We also investigated the correlation between both indices and postoperative ICU admission and length of hospital stay (LOS).Results: The MACE incidence was 7.5%. Both indices had limited discriminative (AUC for RCRI and GSCRI were 0.69 and 0.68, respectively) and predictive abilities. The regression analysis showed that patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) were 3.77 and those with trauma surgery were 2.03 times more likely to exhibit MACE, and the odds of MACE increased by 9% for each additional year above 80. Introducing these factors into both indices (multivariable models) increased the discriminative ability (AUC reached 0.798 and 0.777 for RCRI and GSCRI, respectively). Bootstrap analysis showed that the predictive ability of the multivariate GSCRI but not the multivariate RCRI improved. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that multivariate GSCRI had superior clinical utility when compared with multivariate RCRI. Both indices correlated poorly with postoperative ICU admission and LOS.Conclusion: Both indices had limited predictive and discriminative ability to estimate postoperative in-hospital MACE risk and correlated poorly with postoperative ICU admission and LOS, following surgery under SA in the oldest-old patients. Updated versions by introducing age, AF, and trauma surgery improved the GSCRI performance but not the RCRI.Keywords: geriatric, anesthetic techniques, subarachnoid, risk, major adverse cardiac event

Keywords

• geriatric
• anesthetic techniques
• subarachnoid
• risk
• major adverse cardiac event