A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics

Abstract

We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.

Keywords

• poisson autoregressive models
• contagion
• predictive monitoring