Research on Revenue Insurance Premium Ratemaking of Jujube Based on Copula-Stochastic Optimization Model

Abstract

During the process of jujube planting, there are not only natural risks caused by natural disasters but also market risks caused by price factors. In the study, firstly, wavelet analysis method was used to stabilize the jujube yield per unit area and the jujube price from 1997 to 2018 in Aksu region, Xinjiang, China. Secondly, EasyFit software was used to fit the distribution functions of yield per unit area and price, respectively. Thirdly, the optimal Copula function which connects the marginal distribution functions and its joint distribution function was selected with the principle of “the minimum square distance from the empirical Copula function.” Finally, taking the premium rate and the insurance amount as two decision variables, the farmer’s risk minimization as the objective function, around the four constraints of functions and role of insurance, the nonspeculative nature of insurance, the sustainability of insurance, and the moral hazard factors and the farmers’ willing to participate in insurance, the Copula-stochastic optimization model was set up to determine the premium rate of jujube revenue insurance in Aksu region.