Drought Risk Assessment in Yunnan Province of China Based on Wavelet Analysis

Abstract

A wavelet transform technique was used to analyze the precipitation data for nearly 60 years (1954–2012) in Yunnan Province of China. The wavelet coefficients and the variance yield of wavelet were calculated. The results showed that, in nearly 60 years, the spring precipitation increased slightly; however, the linear trend of other seasonal and annual precipitations showed a reducing trend. Seasonal and annual precipitation had the characteristics of multiple time scales. Different time scales showed the different cyclic alternating patterns. Overall, in the next period of time, different seasons and the annual precipitation will be in the periods of precipitation-reduced oscillation; high drought disaster risks may occur in Yunnan province. Particularly, by analyzing large area of severe drought of Yunnan province in 2009–2012, the predicted results of wavelet were verified. The results may provide a scientific basis for guiding agricultural production and the drought prevention work for Yunnan Province and other places of China.