Zhongguo quanke yixue (Jul 2024)
Trend and Prediction Analysis of the Changing Disease Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease in China and Worldwide from 1990 to 2019
Abstract
Background Ischemic heart disease is recognized as the most common cardiovascular disease with the highest mortality rate worldwide, resulting in an increasing burden of disease on our population. Conducting trend and predictive analysis of the changing burden of disease is an important topic of concern for health care policy. Objective To compare and analyze the burden of disease and risk factors of ischemic heart disease in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, to predict the trend of change, and to provide a basis for carrying out the prevention and treatment of ischemic heart disease. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) , the log-linear model in Joinpoint was used to analyze the changing trends of the burden of disease of ischemic heart disease in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, and trend tests were performed to predict the burden of disease of ischemic heart disease in China from 2020 to 2035 with the help of R 4.3.0. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALY rate of ischemic heart disease in China were lower than the global level, but all of them showed an overall increasing trend, while all of them showed a decreasing trend globally. The high incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of ischemic heart disease in China and globally are mostly in the elderly population, and the overall burden of ischemic heart disease in China is expected to decrease from 2020 to 2035 (AAPC for morbidity, mortality, and DALY rates are -0.400, -1.167, and -1.318, respectively; P<0.001) , with greater decreases in all indicators in men than in women in both China and globally. Conclusion The situation of ischemic heart disease prevention and treatment in China is severe, and the disease burden is particularly heavy in the male and elderly populations; the disease burden caused by disability is high; high systolic blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein are important risk factors. In the future, we should pay attention to the increasing trend of disease burden of ischemic heart disease in China, and focus on strengthening preventive interventions in men and the elderly population.
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